NZD/USD forecast to depreciate in 2013, though questionable - BNZ

As BNZ notes, what’s most are keeping an eye on is the NZD outlook for next year, which is tied to the outlook for NZ’s weighted trading partner growth, which is at 3.8% for calendar year 2013.

From Mike Jones, Currency Strategist at BNZ: “All things considered, the 3.8% growth forecast for NZ’s trading partners next year looks a touch strong. But not overly so. Plugging in our own (lower) numbers for Australia and the Eurozone still produces a healthy 3.5%. The important point is that, whether it’s 3.8% or 3%, the expected pick-up in global growth next year seriously calls into question our view the NZD will head lower from H2 2013.”