The EUR/USD closed the month at 1.2987. A slightly better-than-anticipated third-quarter performance in the euro area core (+0.2% q/q in both Germany and France) has led to adjusted 2012 GDP growth forecast from -0.6% to -0.5% for the region as a whole. Nevertheless, even with a slight uptick in certain surveys in November (PMIs, “Ifo”), leading indicators have failed to signal a material improvement in the forthcoming period. Elevated financial volatility caused unemployment, political risk, credit differentiation, fiscal tightening, and, eventually, a timid recovery to a trend growth rate of around 1-1.5% annually.
Highest: 1.3028
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Lowest: 1.2881
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Difference: 0.0147
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Average: 1.2967
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Change %: -0.01
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With Greece behind markets are more positive. The focus is now the US Fiscal Cliff. Democrats and Republicans will reach a compromise but not until after weeks of political showmanship and stress. Markets are sure that the US will avoid a disaster. Other events include the FOMC meeting as traders are not exactly sure if Bernanke will offer up additional stimulus.
Disclosure/disclaimer: No positions. The above is for informational purposes only. All trade decisions are solely the responsibility of the reader.
