Tuesday 1 January 2013

forex for genius?

You don’t have to be a genius to play this came. If that was required, Wall Street would have run out of players a long time ago. If you employ risk control and stops, then you can be wrong 40% of the time, and still make a living. That’s little better than a coin toss. If you’re wrong only 30% of the time, you can make millions.  If you’re wrong only 20% of the time, you are heading a trading desk at Goldman Sachs. If you’re wrong a mere 10% of the time, you’re running a $20 billion hedge fund that the public only hears about when you pay/invest $100 million.  And if someone tells you they’re never wrong, as is often claimed on the Internet, run a mile, because it’s simply impossible!
INVEST like a fundamentalist, execute like a technical analyst.  (Swing) TRADE using technical analysis…then by understanding basic fundamentals will make you even better.
The simpler a market approach, the better it works (the ‘KISS’ method).  Everyone talks about “buy low and sell high”, but few actually do it. All black boxes eventually blow up, if they were ever there in the first place.
Making money in the market is an unnatural act. We humans are predators and hunters evolved to track game on the horizon of an African savanna. Modern humans are maybe 5 million years old, but civilization has been around for only 10,000 years. Our brains have not had time to make the adjustment. In the market, this means that if a stock has gone up, you believe it will continue. This is why market tops and bottoms see volume spikes. To make money, you have to go against these innate instincts. Some people are born with this ability, while others can only learn it through decades of training.
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